Free tool
Break-even win rate & expectancy calculator
A strategy is not good because it wins often, or because the targets are far away. It is good when win rate and reward:risk combine into positive expectancy. This calculator shows exactly where your numbers land.
Your numbers
Losses are modelled as a full −1R stop-out. If you regularly cut losses early, your real average loss is smaller and expectancy is a little better than shown.
Result
Break-even win rate
at 2.00R reward:risk
33.3%
Expectancy per trade
positive edge
0.35R
Profit factor
1.64
Expected R per month
40 trades
14.0R
Expected account change
per month, risk held constant
14.0%
You need 33.3% to break even and you are running 45.0% — the edge is positive.
Break-even win rate by reward:risk
| Reward:risk | Break-even win rate | Expectancy at 50% win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 : 0.5 | 66.7% | -0.25R |
| 1 : 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.00R |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40.0% | 0.25R |
| 1 : 2.0 | 33.3% | 0.50R |
| 1 : 2.5 | 28.6% | 0.75R |
| 1 : 3.0 | 25.0% | 1.00R |
| 1 : 4.0 | 20.0% | 1.50R |
| 1 : 5.0 | 16.7% | 2.00R |
Once you know your break-even line, the job of a journal is to tell you whether you are above it — per strategy, per instrument and per emotional state. Averages across all trades hide the one setup that is quietly funding everything and the one that is draining it.
Frequently asked questions
- How do you calculate break-even win rate?
- Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward:risk). A 1:1 strategy needs 50%, 1:2 needs about 33.3%, 1:3 needs 25% and 1:0.5 needs 66.7%. Costs push every one of those numbers slightly higher.
- What is expectancy in R?
- Expectancy = (win rate x average win in R) − (loss rate x average loss in R). It is the average R you can expect per trade. Anything above zero is a positive edge; 0.2R per trade over 200 trades is +40R.
- Is a high win rate better than a high RR?
- Neither wins on its own — only the combination has an edge. A 75% win rate at 1:0.3 has roughly the same expectancy as a 35% win rate at 1:2. The practical difference is psychological: low-win-rate systems require sitting through longer losing streaks.
- How many trades do I need before trusting my win rate?
- A sample under about 30 trades tells you almost nothing, and 100+ trades per strategy is a more realistic base for judging an edge. This is exactly why journalling every trade, not just the memorable ones, matters.
Stop guessing. Start journaling.
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